Dave stayed home sick from work yesterday -- he had a scratchy throat and felt exhausted. He didn't have a fever, though, and he plans to go in today. I bought some Covid tests just to make sure we're clear of that. So far I seem to be OK.
I don't know why I'm having so much trouble writing a blog post these days. Normally I just open up the computer and they flow, but for several days now it's felt like pulling teeth. I'm discouraged. I have mid-winter blues.
I'm trying not to be in too much of a funk about Donald Trump winning the Iowa caucuses. It's a tiny contest, a subset of a subset of American voters, and it was hardly a surprise. (Besides, historically, caucus winners often don't go on to become president.) Dave doesn't think Trump can prevail on the national stage, particularly if he's convicted in one of his many legal cases. I'm not so sure, but I'm also trying to be philosophical about it -- if this is who people want, for whatever reason, well, that's how Democracy works. At least this time there's no surprise. We all know who he is and what he's like as a leader. The voters, whatever I may think of their motives and choices, are going into this with their eyes open.
I think the more interesting question is why people might want someone like Trump. There's no question that many, many people are panicked about what they see as unchecked immigration at the southern border. (Even though it is controlled and there are deportations happening all the time.) It's the same issue that drove Brexit, more than any other. From what I can tell, Brexit hasn't done squat to help the UK control migration -- there are more small boats crossing the channel now than before -- and Trump won't be able to better control it in the USA, though there's no doubt he'll amp up the cruelty quotient.
There's also no question that some people want his blustering, assertive presence. I have no idea why Trump's personality would appeal to anyone -- if a more odious human being ever lived, I'm not sure who it is -- but some people think he projects strength. Many want unfettered access to guns -- any and every kind of gun, as many as possible. And overturning Roe v. Wade was a huge win for Trump among many Republicans.
I also think the Democrats are doing a terrible job at selling themselves. Why is so much of America buying the Republican narrative -- that Biden is too old (when he's only FOUR YEARS older than Trump), that he's demented, that the economy is a shambles, that cities are lawless, that Democrats are weaponizing justice and politically persecuting opponents? Why does this seem to be the perceived reality? Why isn't Biden visiting the border, talking about border security, visiting cities to talk about homelessness? Why is he taking the blame for the inaction of Congress? Why aren't we hearing him emphasizing the good? Where the heck is Kamala Harris?
So, anyway, all of that is rolling around in my mind. I'm nauseous just thinking about this election and it's still ten months away.
I don't think it will be doomsday if Trump wins. I think it will be four more years of awfulness, with him pardoning himself and maybe all the J6ers -- though I don't think he cares about them much -- and being a douchebag on the world stage and doing untold damage to all our global relationships. But I think Democracy will survive.
I did send in a form yesterday requesting an overseas ballot, so hopefully I've laid the groundwork for my own voting. This is the first time I've voted since switching my permanent residence from my stepmother's house to my brother's, so we'll see how that goes. I'm sure Florida under DeSantis will do everything possible to make voting harder.
Sigh. I will try to be more cheerful tomorrow, I promise.
(Photo: On my walk through South Kilburn this week.)
31 comments:
I know you don't often talk politics (it is a minefield after all) but I share your concerns. And I am an Australian. However, I do observe world (and US) politics a bit and I am utterly appalled, not just at Donald Trump's behaviour/lies/crimes, but that it appears a vast swathe of people in America actually believe his version of reality. I have come to the conclusion (since I am not living in the US of A) that if Americans do vote for him in November, and he becomes president, then the people get what they deserve. They certainly will get what they asked for. And good luck to them.
Sorry to hear that you are feeling somewhat " down" . Perhaps you should stay away from the areas with graffiti and closed run down shops etc. That's enough to make anyone feel miserable!!
Enjoy the sun today.
Like you, I'm trying so hard to not feel overwhelmed by the support for Trump and what the possibility of him in office again would mean to us all. It's not only the USA that's impacted by his success. At least there are beautiful shadows and light today.
I'm hoping we, Iowans, are wrong as normal and he won't become president again. I largely agree with all you say but thought I would add a couple insights from a more conservative (or at least independent) perspective.
Biden's Age: The political ads (you probably don't see) of Biden falling all the time and shuffling like an old man I think influence the feeling of the general public that he is too old. Also, he tends to stumble a lot verbally as if his mind is slow to connect even though in truth, I'm sure his mind is sharp but he is just trying to slow his talking down to prevent gaffes that has plagued him his whole career.
What People See In Trump: Most of the rational people I know that continue to support him, always cite his political legacy as a reason. He reformed taxes in a huge way, doubling the standard deduction, doubling the child credit, and nearly doing away with the inheritance tax. From what I have read, the typical family with income of $75,000 saw their tax bill slashed in half. Small businesses can deduct 20 percent of their income and 100% of capital improvements in any given year. Right or wrong, he reduced government oversite of literally hundreds of smaller niche areas that in turn trickle down more money or make products much cheaper for the vast majority of Americans at some point or another. I also think that his pull backs from international trade agreements with various countries was also wildly popular, allowing American businesses to compete on a more level playing field.
For me, while I support a fair amount of his legislational achievements, I can't look past the character flaws and thus have never been able to vote for him. As long as there is a gridlocked Congress, I'm happy to have Biden in office who I feel has been largely ineffectual, with the exception of the passed Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and overall Democratic protections of our environment, one major issue I disagree with from the Republicans.
It is hard to be inspired every day, even about other things, when politics and war are so dire.
Interesting numbers we heard yesterday. Of all the immigration we are getting now, 10% only are asylum seekers. 90% have all their legal papers. Yet it is the 10% some people are shouting about....you would think from all the noise they make about it that the figures were the other way around.
Another side point...many of those asylum seekers will have valuable skills..which we cannot utilise until they are approved which can take years...and at that point they are evicted from their temporary accommodation and told go find something else....it is a cruel and wasteful system. It also uses people for political aims and points scoring
You have said what I, too, have been feeling since the Great Orange one announced his running for President. It leaves me with a great sense of unease. During his presidency I tied black ribbons around the spindles on my dining chairs and felt as if the dementors from Harry Potter were hovering over America. To listen or read news feels as if they are hovering again. Yeah, that does sound dramatic, but the craziness is in the air especially here in Tennessee, the state that sent some of the crazies to Congress. It means all hands on deck this voting season! Phillis, living in Tennessee
I mostly just feel sick. Like I aways say- it's not really Trump himself although he's horrible and awful and a criminal and mentally ill- it's the fact that so many people support him. Love him. Honestly, I think it's because he allowed the racists to come out of the closet and proudly proclaim their supposed white superiority because for so many of them, that's all they really have.
I could be wrong.
I was talking to a coworker yesterday whose husband voted for Biden, but then was upset that he wasn't more moderate (??? what the heck - he's practically Reagan) so probably neither of them will vote. And that's what I'm afraid of - that people have lost the art of picking the lesser of two evils & the greater evil will win because his people are FIRED UP.
You present the Trump issue very clearly. It's sad that it says a lot about people and their grasp on issues.
I do agree that the democrats need to be more outspoken on the dangers of DJT. The man really is crazy. He's not smart. He's also, at every turn, making threats of retaliation when he gets power again. His comment that it is 'ridiculous' that he was 'forced to leave'. My god. He lost an election. That's the way it works. My biggest fear with him is that he collected money from at least 20 foreign countries while he was president. I will always remember his call with Putin (unrecvorded) which was followed by his abrupt decision to pull back American forces in Syria. Russia moved in in the matter of HOURS. This is a dangerous human being, and unlike you, I DO fear for the future of democracy if he gets hold of power once again. That being said, I honestly don't see that as a realistic possibility.
I think I have to disagree w/the comment that it wouldn’t be doomsday if Trump wins again. I can’t understand that view, perhaps if you look only at what he put on the Supreme Court and its ramifications. Odious is an understatement. Have you watched any of his speeches? It is insanity combined with racism and misogyny. And people clapping away at all the truly awful things he says. You think the right to marriage for gay couples isn’t next on the chopping block? How about how trans people are being treated? Don't get me started on school, and mall and movie theater, shootings. Jesus. And the comments re: Biden from one of your other readers I won’t even grace. The only one I must address: he slows his speech not to prevent gaffes. It is to combat his stutter. Everyone knows this. Literally everyone. And I think my outraged response to this post is b/c of the state of things here in Ohio. One example: a young woman had charges brought against her b/c she miscarried in a toilet. She was charged, Steve: felony abuse of a corpse after she miscarried in her bathroom and went to the hospital b/c she was bleeding out. A nurse there reported her. So, no, I am not optimistic that my world here, and that of my children and friends, wouldn’t change dramatically further if Trump is reelected.
I hope he never gets back in office and we never have to hear about him again. Look at the damage he did when he was in office to our global reputation. I see a lot of Facebook and Instagram posts promoting Biden and Harris and what they have accomplished despite the gridlock in the House because of the Republicans. They block anything from getting done and then blame Biden for that. I don't believe that a majority of people want Trump. The majority of Republicans in Iowa did not even vote in the caucus.
I know exactly how you feel. I've been feeling the same way. We are going into another election with candidates that no one wants on either side. It's depressing. There are people I've talked to who hesitate to vote for Biden because his of his age and the fact that they don't like Kamala Harris at all and she could end up President before his term is over.
When I had dinner with those friends from Chicago last week, they also expressed that same feelings. A sort of depression over the politics of today. I'm guessing that feeling is widespread.
I am catching up on blog reading as I've been traveling over the last couple of days. Your post about Trump and the points you brought forth are exactly how I feel. EXACTLY. I just don't understand why people support him as I find him to be morally corrupt and a genuinely awful person. I get the whole conservative vs liberal disagreements, but this goes beyond that in my opinion. When I think of him winning again, I am just perplexed and it draws me down into a malaise that is hard to shake. I guess some good news for me is that my mother, who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 doesn't like him, and feels like he is a crook. She is very conservative, but it finally seeing what kind of ass this man is. I think our electoral system is out of whack too, as Hilary Clinton actually got more votes than him. But there has been no efforts to change how we elect a president.
I'm trying to stay positive, but it's difficult. I've voted third party the last two times, but I'm not sure I can even do that this time. I really don't want to be one of those people who doesn't vote at all. I know it's a pipe dream, but I still wish we could have a moderate from each party (I can think of several from both sides I could get behind) join forces and run on an independent ticket. I wouldn't care which took the top spot. Stranger things have happened.
We need more Olga photos. (and I hope you're feeling better)
Question : Has Olga Girl Missed A Meal ?
Then All Is Right In The World
Cheers
Here is an analagy that I think is apt: It is as if we are being offered a choice between an egg salad sandwich and a s**t sandwich. Even if they don't like egg salad, a reasonable person is going to say, "Yeah...just go ahead and give me an egg salad sandwich." What we have, in effect, is roughly 1/3 of the country saying, "So...exactly how much s**t is in that sandwich?"
If it doesn't make sense, let me say it outright. If you are going to sit and pick apart Biden while turning a blind eye to a man who say that on his first day in office, he will put the military on the street, a man who says that he's going to retaliate against his enemies, a man who say, point blank, that it was ridiculous that he was even forced out of office the first time, you are eating a heaping helping of s**t. Biden may not be the perfect choice, and I am very angry at him for his stance on Israel, but he does not come anywhere near the threat to democracy that Donald Trump does. You're are simply overlooking it.
Steve, feel free to delete this. I waffled about the comment, but I honestly feel it to be the truth.
Just read something I thought my cheer you up. Only 14% of registered Republicans in Iowa voted in the caucus. Of those, just over half voted for Trump. So really, it was just a very small minority that nominated him, i.e. 56,000 out of 3.2 million or 1.7% of Iowans. That is less than standard deviation on most political polls.
Absolutely everything you said and more is spot on -- I just don't get it all. I don't understand Biden's choices in not hitting the border or other things -- or Kamala's MIA status -- or just about anything else. Nor do I understand people who don't see the economy is turning. (Although there was a great opinion piece in the NYT today about if you want to understand peoples' ideas about inflation, look at the price of a Snickers bar. It's a good read.)
But mostly, I don't understand the people who think Trump is the Messiah coming to save them. As one caucus voter said, "Jesus died on the cross for our sins and that is what Trump is doing -- facing persecution to make things better for us." Huh? There are a couple of ads out now -- Trump's is "God Gave Us Trump." The Lincoln Project has their answer to it -- "God Made a Dictator." (Youtube). Worth a look. What are these supporters afraid of? (Rhetorical question) And why? We had a very long talk about this at dinner with friends last night -- and yes, everyone is baffled. And very, very scared.
I am pleased to be able to read your post and the comments. This is what blogging is about - to provide perspectives we would not otherwise see.
American politics has become so slimy that it could bring anyone down. I have about given up on watching the political shows I used to love on television. And I'm reading less and less about politics on the web also. I don't know if this makes me a good or bad person but I think I may be a calmer person. Most of the time, anyway.
I disagree. I am not stupid. I am an American. I own guns. I have the right to vote my conscience just as you do.
I agree with you and seeing people support DT makes no sense. He is a criminal on many levels. How can anyone support a criminal? It all makes no sense at all. I personally find DT a huge distraction. He does not represent America as I see it.
He's a criminal, a rapist, and a con man. I don't understand why anyone would vote for him. I'm pretty pissed at Biden for the lack of a covid response, and his steadfast support of the destruction of Gaza, but he's still better than Trump. He will destroy this country, he's already told us how he's going to do it.
I'm more discouraged and worried about the future of this country than I've ever been. As many have said, it's not even so much about Trump, it's about all the people who support him. (including some of my family members) It's about lies going unchallenged and political violence being condoned.
I read in my newspaper this morning, or maybe it was yesterday, that the number of republicans who voted for him is only a small percentage of the actual numbers of repubs in the state, many just didn't bother going out to vote, also that not all of those voting voted for him. So perhaps there are a few beginning to see the light. And if those few have any influence over their families and friends this may be the beginning of a groundswell that will topple the orange smudge.
David: That's how I see it too. As I said, we know what he's about now. He's made it clear. There are no surprises.
Frances: Ha! Actually, going on that walk to the housing estate on a sunny Tuesday was the high point of my week!
Mitchell: You've got to find the beauty amid the insanity, right?
Ed: Thanks for all the information on taxes. I must admit none of that was really on my radar. I can see how that would be encouraging to people and small-business owners, but it's interesting that when people talk about their support for Trump, no one cites tax relief as the reason! (At least not that I have seen.) Biden has always stumbled verbally, even as a young man -- as others have pointed out, he's had a stutter all his life.
GZ: I have not seen those statistics. Yeah, from the news coverage, you'd think everyone immigrating is illegal!
Phillis: I love the image of the dementors -- it DOES feel that way. Maybe I'll try some black ribbons myself! (We have dementors in the UK too, but maybe not as severely.)
Ms Moon: I feel sick too. And I think you're right that he gives racists and others with socially reprehensible positions permission to express those views. (Just as Rush Limbaugh did.) But I also don't think everyone who supports Trump is a racist. I think that's too easy. In fact even some black voters support him!
Bug: I think that's part of the right-wing media narrative -- that Biden is a "far left" president. Which of course is ridiculous. I'm betting your co-worker watches Fox News.
Red: I just don't get the appeal. I suppose, as Ed said, there are some policy reasons people might support Trump, but I suspect much of his support is more visceral.
Debby: I do think Trump's fealty to Putin is worrying, though I think it mostly stems from his isolationist impulses. I think he wants the US out of any and all foreign entanglements. Of course the world doesn't really work that way.
Elle: Oh, I don't mean to soft-pedal the impact of another Trump presidency. There's no question that things would get darker for many of us. I agree the case of the woman in Ohio was appalling and yes, I agree that gay marriage is in danger. But I guess it depends on what we consider apocalyptic. I don't think a Trump presidency will mean the end of Democracy altogether, as some have predicted.
Ellen D: I definitely hope people are getting the message that Congress is stonewalling Biden's progress. They literally will not allow him to have any victories. The Repubs did the same to Obama whenever they could. It's no way to govern.
Sharon: I don't get the age thing at all, given that Trump is just as old. (And in worse health!) As for Kamala, I feel like none of us really know her. I'm still not sure what she's capable of, good or bad.
Michael: I hope more voters are thinking like your mother! I DO think Trump's MAGA supporters are a very noisy minority. I just worry about how many moderate to conservative mainstream voters he'll be able to capture.
Kelly: The sad reality in the USA is that a third-party vote is essentially wasted, and could potentially result in the greater of two bad choices getting into office. (See Ralph Nader in Bush v. Gore.) Ideally I see the point of voting our conscience and getting that number recorded, but practically it often works against our better interests.
Padre: Olga's world is always all right!
Debby: That is an apt analogy, and I don't disagree with it. I doubt that Trump would destroy our democracy. I just don't think any single person has that power -- not without a lot of enablers, and I think others would draw the line (as they did in his first administration). But I agree that he would do a lot of damage to a lot of people.
Ed: Yes! Those are helpful numbers. As I said, a subset of a subset. And Trump's supporters tend to be very motivated, so they may overrepresent his overall support in a contest like that.
Jeanie: I did read that Snickers article! It was a very good explanation! Yes, the religious overtones to Trump's support are truly bewildering. People who think he's the messiah? WHY? If God were to send an emissary to "right" the evils of the world, why on EARTH would be choose Donald Trump???
Tasker: I'm so glad we all have this format to express our concerns and opinions and talk about them!
Catalyst: I get all of my news through print (or online versions of print) media. I think it helps keep me sane. I can't stand television, and I certainly can't stand Twitter.
Jackie: I don't think I ever called anyone stupid, or asserted that you don't have the right to vote your conscience. You certainly do! I don't get the gun thing at all -- in fact it is completely bewildering to me -- but I understand that's a cultural difference among many Americans.
Susan: That's exactly true. He IS a huge distraction. If we had more reasonable people running for office we could focus on issues rather than personalities.
Allison: I agree that Biden, despite his shortcomings, is far, far better than Trump! No question! And yes, I'd agree with the characterization of Trump as a con man. He'd call it doing business, but he crosses a line.
Margaret: Yeah, the fact that he appeals to so many people really IS mystifying. Except that I think there are a lot of people who are angry and supporting Trump is their way of expressing that anger -- giving the finger to the establishment, basically.
River: Yes, the Iowa caucuses are notoriously NOT representative of American voters as a whole -- as I said, they are a subset of a subset of people, and Iowa is less diverse and more rural than many other American states. So who knows how meaningful any of this is. It's still worrisome, though!
I missed this blogpost when I went off walking yesterday. I know you try to remark on US politics as little as possible in this blog so it's interesting to read your current reflections. With regard to odious human beings, Trump compares nicely with Pol Pot, Benito Mussolini and Boris Johnson.
You know, I DO think it's a doomsday scenario of a sort of Trump wins. He knows how to circumvent checks and balances now, and he certainly will. There's no denying he has a brutish charisma for some people, which made me sad because he and his cult could not be more mired in hate. I wonder, not idly, where I would go if he wins again. I think about Nazi Germany and the people who got out and the people who waited too long. My only hope is that enough people understand that whatever their beef with the Democrats, and there seem to be many right now, they have no choice but to vote AGAINST another Trump presidency. I wont say he cant win (though in my heart, I think that) because I didn't think he could win in 2016, and here we are. Four years again you could not have told me we'd still be in this place. The abdication of decency in the Republican party will never cease to confound me. Sorry to leave such cheerful thoughts (not) in your comments.
I really do think that his last presidency shows that our checks and balances need some tweaking. I am horrified at the number of sycophants that still are in lock step with him every step of the way. If nothing more, his presidency has show a bright light on all the spineless rats that need to be swept out of our government.
He did NOT back out of Syria to avoid foreign entanglements. Nothing to do with it. He was trying to hold Putin's favor. He has long been trying to do business with the soviet government. Everything the matcarp (Thanks, Tasker!) does can be brought right around to something that benefits him personally.
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